FDI forecast to remain robust

FDI forecast to remain robust

10 Feb 2025

Malaysia’s foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to remain robust in the long term, but there could be repercussions in the short term as investors hold back on their investment decisions amid heightened global uncertainties.

These uncertainties triggered by geopolitical risks are further exacerbated by US president Donald Trump’s import tariffs and the looming trade war.

However, economists viewed this scenario as a temporary setback as the country’s economic fundamentals remain intact.

Furthermore, they said Trump’s delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico for another month may reduce the chances of an outbreak of a broader trade war.

HSBC Asean economist Yun Liu told StarBiz despite recent tariff announcements from the United States on Mexico, Canada and China, there remains huge uncertainty on future tariff risks.

She said this would likely put investors on a cautious footing in the near term when looking not only at Malaysia, but also other Asean countries.

That said, she said there are still good reasons to believe in Malaysia’s growth prospects, as the determinants of FDI often focus on long-term fundamentals.

“If we measure FDI commitments as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), Malaysia has topped the region since late 2021.

“After all, a confluence of factors, including its significance in the global tech supply chain, friendly FDI policies, existing industry clusters, a skilled labour force and extensive free trade agreements or FTAs make Malaysia an outperformer in the region.

“One thing worth keeping an eye on is the New Investment Incentive Framework, expected to be unveiled in the first quarter of the year (1Q25) and implemented in 3Q25.

“Malaysia needs a set of new incentives to lure investments into high-tech sectors that produce high-value jobs,” Liu added.

RAM Rating Services Bhd economist Nadia Mazlan said in the short term, the perils of potential Trump tariffs may lead investors to hold back on their investment decisions, which could weaken FDI into Malaysia.

However, she said as jitters wear off, tariffs that are currently being imposed on China may prompt even more manufacturing companies to adopt the China Plus One strategy.

This supply chain realignment could lead to a rise in investments into Asean, including Malaysia, as seen during the first United States-China trade war.

“As transpired back in 2018, when the first trade war was initiated, we saw Malaysia’s net FDI slip to RM30.7bil from RM40.4bil in 2017, before rising to RM32.4bil the following year.

“Thus, if history serves as any guidance, the unpredictability of Trump’s trade policies could hamper investor sentiment in the near term, leading to a more moderate net FDI inflow this year compared to last year.

“That said, foreign capital investments are typically made to further an entity’s long-term goals and objectives. Thus, the committed FDIs in Malaysia are unlikely to be swayed by short-term geopolitical fluctuations,” she noted.

Nadia said Malaysia’s FDI will likely remain relatively robust this year on the back of a still-favourable FDI outlook, albeit somewhat dampened by heightened global uncertainties.

She said the latest foreign investments approved data suggest a healthy FDI pipeline, registering RM106.7bil worth of foreign investments approved for the first three quarters of 2024, most of which were in manufacturing.

The full-year investment approval amount for 2024, she said, while likely to come in lower compared to RM188.4bil in 2023, is still markedly higher than the pre-pandemic average (2016-2019 average: RM69.1 bil).

“We expect some of these investments to materialise soon, which should continue to support Malaysia’s FDI inflow this year,” Nadia said.

OCBC Bank senior Asean economist Lavanya Venkateswaran expects FDI inflows to remain steady this year.

She said notwithstanding global volatilities, Malaysia’s economic fundamentals have become stronger in recent years.

“Malaysia remains an attractive destination for manufacturing and services FDI inflows based on relatively solid infrastructure, young workforce, strong positions in the electrical and electronics (E&E) and commodities supply chain.

“These factors will continue to hold water even in 2025. This is complemented by the government’s push to diversify growth across the country, for example, setting up of the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (SEZ), facilitate and develop infrastructure and implement the various medium-term economic plans will keep FDI inflows into Malaysia well buoyed,” Venkateswaran said.

Malaysia recorded FDI inflows (on a balance of payments basis) of RM29.1bil for the first three quarters of 2024, about 39% higher than the period in 2023. The trend for FDI inflows is upward and this is also being reflected in broader investment approvals. For the first three quarters of 2024, Malaysian Investment Development Authority (Mida) approved RM254.7bil of domestic and foreign investments across various sectors.

Juwai IQI global chief economist Shan Saeed said Malaysia continues to draw investment from local and foreign investors due to its macroeconomic stability, increasing demographics and policy consistency.

“The outlook for investment in 2025 looks promising with FDI expected to increase by 10% to 15% in the current fiscal year. Malaysia has created its own niche as information and communications technology (ICT) and data centre reliable hub for the global market in the last three to four years.

“The main drivers that will attract FDI inflows into the country include accelerated economic growth trajectory, ⁠macroeconomic stability, foreign investors positive outlook on the country, tech savvy labor force, modern infrastructure, and its strategic geographical location in the region. These all bodes well for FDI inflows into Malaysia,” Shan said.

At the same time, he said Malaysia continues to compete in FDIs with neighboring Asean countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore and the Philippines. In terms of regional competitiveness, Malaysia is fairly competitive, thanks to its four key variables to attract FDIs – political stability, productive labor force, modern infrastructure, and consistent economic policies and development outlook.

MARC Ratings Bhd chief economist Ray Choy said the global trade environment is expected to become increasingly complex this year compared to 2024, potentially dampening business sentiment and transaction velocity.

“Despite this, FDI typically operates on multi-year planning horizons, indicating that Malaysia is likely to continue benefiting from a robust long-term economic strategy.

“This strategy includes actively pursuing a diversified portfolio of investors and trade partners, pertinent examples are the Johor-Singapore SEZ and renewable energy investments in collaboration with South Korean companies in Sarawak, which exemplifies Malaysia’s approach to diversifying business partners within Asia amidst global trade challenges,” he said.

Choy said in recent years, Malaysia has experienced a surge in FDI inflows beyond long-term average levels since 2021, driven by national economic blueprints focused on increasing GDP contributions from higher value-added sectors and ongoing economic transformation.

As a leader in semiconductor manufacturing, which is currently a high growth sector, Malaysia would continue to benefit from policies such as the National Semiconductor Strategy, he said. Other sectors would also contribute significantly, driven by the New Industrial Master Plan 2030, National Energy Transition Roadmap, and goals towards the upcoming 13th Malaysia Plan.

“our baseline scenario suggests Malaysia will continue to benefit from trade diversion, as US tariff policies remain primarily targeted at China, with potential for renegotiation if China adopts a less assertive geopolitical stance.

“While the United States has begun with a 10% tariff, this measured approach remains subject to review and depends on China’s diplomatic strategy,” Choy noted.

As to what Malaysia should do to further attract FDIs, he said the country has made considerable progress in enhancing tangible aspects that support (FDI), including improvements in transportation infrastructure, competitive rental rates, and well-connected utilities.

However, Choy said there is an urgent need to address several intangible factors that could further enhance FDI inflows. A critical area of focus is the development of skilled human capital, which is essential for attracting high-value investments, particularly in the technology sector. Additionally, he said there needs to be a greater emphasis on research and development (R&D) to foster innovation and drive economic growth.

“Nonetheless, it is important that basic sectors are not neglected in the pursuit of high-growth, high-value sectors, particularly for the purpose of agricultural security as Malaysia’s ecological abundance is a natural strength that should be capitalised upon.

“When assessing FDI, it is essential for a strategic focus on sectors that create spillover effects across the economy and generate employment opportunities. Consequently, attracting FDI must go beyond mere value creation.

“It should be targeted on a deal-by-deal basis to ensure that sustainable economic impacts are achieved. Given the commercial aspects of attracting FDI, dynamic regulatory and policy flexibilities should be tailored to each investment deal,” Choy said.

Juwai’s Shan said to further step up FDI, the government can navigate the new tariff regime from the Trump administration by exploring new markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Africa and Asia, especially Asean to spearhead economic growth and achieve higher income.

“FDI, trade and commerce move in countries where economic growth momentum is strong, political stability is solid, has the ability to consume goods and services to bolster the GDP growth, and strategic geography.

“I foresee Malaysia’s GDP growth outlook to meander around 5 to 6% in 2025, and the country will continue to stay on global investors radar as it is the 26th largest economy of the world, 11th in Asia and third in ASEAN. Malaysia has also been running the trade surplus for the last 27 years,” Shan said.

RAM’s Nadia said Malaysia remains an attractive FDI destination given its unique strengths such as having a skilled workforce, robust infrastructure, and a business-friendly environment as showcased by our 12 th ranking in the World Bank’s ease of doing business index.

“Furthermore, Malaysia’s ability to attract FDI is clearly demonstrated in sectors where it holds a competitive advantage, such as E&E, as well as data centre developments, which have received significant government attention and support.

“However, increasing regional competition from peers could make it a challenge to sustain Malaysia’s investment competitiveness. In particular, Vietnam has been a top alternative to China for firms while Indonesia’s pull factor includes its large labour and market size,” she said.

Source: The Star